Forward looking portfolio

With recent drop of another stock I'm back to even par. I'm now looking it just selling for loss in several stocks with one goal in mind...I have a few sectors I want my money in.

The first is infrastructure. With the global boom, any play on this will yield great results. For this I'm looking at SGR, FWLT and FLR. These are high quality companies that specialize in infrastructure. The second is high growth. Any company that is growing rapidly will be able to make it through recession. For this I'm thinking along the lines of CRDN, GRMN, and AAPL. I want to buy high dividend paying banks on the way down. 10 shares at a time for every $1 drop in share price. This should be accomplished in the ROTH. Lastly, I want tech. Tech is booming now, best quarter in years and will drive us forward and keep us from recession. Here I like EMC, CY, AMAT. Any short term solar plays are valid.

A mixture of stock and options will be good. I want to stay away from mortgages and stay away from retail. Both are on a downtrend right now. I'll look to revamp this within the next few weeks and will keep you posted on new aquisitions to the portfolio.

Back again!!

Sorry all who read this, probably very few, but I had to take a break after losing my ass last week. I got way too risky in options buying, oct expiring options and buying options in companies whom I did little research. The only way to win though is to not replicate mistakes, so I'll outline my mistakes.

1. Buying BBW options and not selling until after earnings was a mistake. I had planned to sell before earnings and need to learn if I have to take a loss before earnings, then just do it. It's not the end of the world and if you have a plan you need to stick with it.

2. Buying SNDK without doing any research was a horrible idea. Since INTC reported a strong quarter, and said flash memory was good for them...I assumed SNDK would blow away expectations. What happened in reality was expectations were already built up, so when SNDK reported better than average results it wasn't up to street expectations. Long term I think SNDK will be great. The correct call would have been buy some stock or long term options before earnings and add to it if they disappoint.

3. Buying a FEB cat option before earnings was ultimately a bad decision even though they had one of the best quarters ever. Their forward looking guidance put a dent in the stock price, but I'm not quite sure why.... If their international gains continue, then they should keep making profits and hitting expectations. Anyways, It's a feb expiring option so I have time to make it up.

Now with that said, I did make a pretty penny on INTC options. I did, however, take a 'free ride'. I did an illegal trade, let me explain. I bought options which auto-exercised at expiry. I then owed the bank 10000, but instead of paying it I sold my shares for a gain. I technically was trading with money that wasn't mine; so I had done what was called a free ride. I would have been on probation for 90 days, however, I moved money from my roth over and money from my other account before the trade settled. So now I'm not on trading probation.

Lost my shorts...

I've officially lost my shorts on options. First time, last time. New rules have been put in place to stop this....

1. Buy mispriced options, and don't buy to time earnings.
2. Buy ITM options, so it's same as owning the stock, so stock replacement.
3. Buy into growth.
4. Don't be an idiot.

gonna get hit like a truck...

Hopefully I'm wrong about this, but just documenting my thoughts...I should have seen this coming. I have a feeling I'm going to get hit by a truck on these BBW options and there is nothing I can do. Looking back on it and seeing tha they are seeking strategic alternatives....seeing that there last quarter they missed expectations...I should have either bought options expiring in a few months or avoided this completely. I got too overconfident in my trading and I think it'sgoing to cost me. Retail sector in general has been quite crummy.

Anyways, my INTC calls should sell today for around 2.00. I missed this sell yesterday and had anticipated either an upgrade or EBAY earnings would drive them higher. I got the latter. This should offset lost money on BBW...SNDK also reports today after market close, so lets hope for a good call there. I still see CAT putting up good numbers, I think their international exposure will lead them to kill expectations.

CRDN has hit the price target and so has JCP. However, I'm not touching JCP until I see something solid. CRDN is another story, I thought I missed this buying opportunity but I don't think I have. I see it dropping to 73, and if i does I'm getting 10 shares. They report earnings on OCT 30.

I'm still looking to offload 50 shares of SVNT, 25 shares of GE and a BBY call. It's time to take some of this money to the bank and buy the house of my dreams with the love of my life. And lets not forget to let the bulls loose.

Mid Day update...

I had correct reads on CRDN and JCP. I suggested that I raised my target buy for CRDN to 75, and it hit resistance in the 74's and is back up to 76. I now regret not buying, but had purchased 2 options yesterday and wanted some cash on hand in my account. JCP blew right through 61 to 58 and change today...I think the retail sector is truly undervalued, and believe JCP will bounce back. I'm almost tempted to buy stock rather than options, because the options are so overvalued it's not funny. I could purchase the stock and sell a covered call, but would tie up too much money in doing so.



BBW shorts are not covering...although it is slightly up today. I have until tomorrow to sell the position and it is not looking well at the current moment.



Since the whole market is down today INTC shares are trading sideways in lieu of the fact of earnings report at the end of the day. I'm debating on whether I want to sell any of these as I know a personal friend who has 10 of these oct contracts. Let's cut the crap and let the bulls loose already.

new positions

By COB today, I have opened up three new positions. Which I will outline below. I am in a revamping transition on my portfolio where I'm looking to offload stocks / options in order to gain liquidity, changing positions to better myself while also freeing up a chunck of change for this house I am buying.

I opened a position in November calls for SNDK. There has been an abnormally high call volume for SNDK november, leading me to believe somebody knows something. Is it a takeover? Or just solid earnings? We find out on thursday...

The second position I opened was of CAT. I bought a FEB call for CAT...I think they will blow numbers away. I feel that international infastructure is extremely bullish now, and CAT will not disappoint with earnings this friday. Again, time will tell. However, I can't see CAT getting much cheaper than this.

Lastly, I bought a JAN 09 call for RAD. This is in my serious revamp of Scottrade account, where I want to sell OSK, sell RAD, sell LVLT all for options. This swap out should give me 2500 for the house...but not instantaneously. It's a slow process.

Tomorrow will be INTC earnings. I'm also looking at trimming a position in my USAA account and getting into some SNDA (they were up a quick 4% today on no news). By tomorrow I will close at least two of my calls of INTC. I expect earnings to be good, but expert analysts say the make or break number for INTC is gross margins, which sunk to a 5 year low of 47% last quarter. This quarter expects 52%, so anything north of this will be green for traders.

Other ways I can free up cash is taking off some GE, some SVNT, and possibly one of my BBY calls. This could give me about 2500 for the house. I'll look to trim these within the next week.

Let the bulls loose.

Watching these companies for next week.

Tues - DPZ, INTC, TMA
Wed - JPM, UTX, KO
Thur - BBW, CY, GOOG, SNDK, WYE

There have been unusual options on SNDK for November, takeout speculation should be noted. I will probably jump into options of SNDK prior to earnings report.

Also, a Chinese company Shanda (ticker SNDA), who is an interactive entertainment media company in china (video games...MMORPG), is super cheap and I will buy this. I think this company is going to take off as I feel I have been left behind by the rest of the Chinese companies.

ACH and ytd gains

I made 190 yesterday off of trading ACHJN, an option of ACH, a Chinese Aluminum producer. I had been sick of sitting on the sidelines and it paid off. My strategy for next week will be to closely follow the options market. I'd like to make a trade on wed and sell on thur, or within the day on both days. I think I can make some quick money on the options for big companies, I'm looking at RIMM, GOOG, BIDU, ACH, CEO and TSL. I'm looking at oct expiring options, and I just want to know premiums during weeks of expiry. If they are decent I may get in and out for a quick gain.

YTD gains....Hard to calculate sort of because I have my Direct Deposit where I trade. However, I figured realized gains to be around 5% and unrealized gains to be about 13.3%. Not that great but better than nothing. I made many stupid trades and have learned from them, and have actually been doing quite well lately (although so has the market in general). I need to be able to make money when the market is falling as well.

Overexposed on OCT 07 calls...maybe. Risk = Reward

Am I too overexposed on OCT 07 calls? We'll see, I bought another yesterday and have an order in for two more BBWJW calls as they are at half the value I had bought my previous ones. Right now I'm losing my tail on these OCT calls, but we'll see how today fares. I bought 1 ACH call yesterday, ITM, shortterm, to try to get a quick score. I bought OCT 70 call for 6.20, and will sell roday. Premarket has ACH at 77.80, so perhaps I'll get a quick $200 on what I call 'a very stupid trade.' I didn't even research, I went on gut instinct, and normally when I do this I get burned. So why did I buy? I'm sick of seeing these Chinese stocks go up and me not partake. So I got greedy. They go up one day, then down the next day, then up the next day...We'll see if it pays off. Below are a list of the calls I currently have, expiring next friday.

.BBWJW Strike price of 17.50 3 contracts at $1.40 a contract (I have an order for 2 more at $.50, maybe I can break even on this. Shorts still have three days to cover, with the biggest movement being on Tues and Wed).

.INTQE Strike price of 25 5 contracts bought at $1.15 a contract. (Should have sold these yesterday when I could have got $1.35 out of them. My target price was $1.50, I'm not sure I'll see it.

.ACHJN Strike price of 70 1 contract bought at $6.20 yesterday, will sell today for 8 or better.

Other general thoughts that weren't acted upon... selling GE, I had a hunch that GE would miss, and eventhough they were right on it wasn't good enough for the street. I had a limit yesterday to sell 25 shares at 42.50, now premarket has GE at 40.90. I'm disappointed in myself.....on a sidenote, I was going to buy GE OCT 40 puts for .14-.16 cents...that's what they were going for yesterday. Could have made a pretty penny on that.....CRDN is close to another buy, I wish I had more money. I may sell a call to get into more CRDN.....Buying another EMC call may be a good idea, April 08 or Jan 09 calls look promising. Remember, ITM, we want to own EMC stock and get the most movement for our investment.....

Keep an eye on...

JCP options...JCP reported a decrease in same store sales of 2.4% for the last 5 weeks due to unfavorable weather and housing conditions. Premarket trading is now 64 a share vs. 68 close yesterday. They also lowered 3q eps, but gave a positive outlook for holiday season shopping.

I expect them to hit a yearly low from this, down in the 60-61 range...if it hits 61, which would probably be tomorrow or monday, I'm pulling the trigger on an option for MAR 08. I am unsure of strike price yet, but it has had much resistance in the lower 60's so unless it breaks through resistance I see it bouncing up fairly quickly.

5 trades today

Bulls and bears both make money, pigs get slaughtered... today I was a bull and took much off the table. I opened two positions and closed three today, netting roughly $500. Let's recap the trades in order.

I opened the day by setting a limit for AAJU, oct 37.50 option for Alcoa at 1.90 a contract. This was coincidentally the low in the day. I put a sell in at 2.40...which it blew past to close at 2.80. Alcoa proceeded to miss earnings, so I'm glad I was able to pull in about $85 on 385 investment.

I opened a position today in BBW, OCT 17.50 BBWJW, at 1.40 a contract. The stock continued to drop at the end of the day, and I've lost about .30 a contract probably on them. This stock is heavily shorted, and I expect many shorts to cover prior to earnings report. They report next thursday, and I hope to drop two of them before earnings and play with the house's money on the last option.

I sold my EMC shares. Although I didn't want to do this as I believe EMC will continue to rise due to its stake in VMW, I need the money for the downpayment on the house and I still own a DITM call for march on EMC, EMCDC, which is up nearly 40 percent.

I also sold my AUY shares at close. I had a sell in for AUY at 12.25, but changed it to 12.15 at 3.59 pm. The sell hit and I netted nearly $180. I didn't want to sell this either, but again need funds for the house payment.

Watch for PEP reporting thur and GE reporting friday. I'm going to research options for these and offer insight into their earnings tomorrow.

AA options...

I purchased two AAJU, Alcoa options before earnings today. Alcoa usually runs up prior to earnings, and I expect today to be no different. I payed a pretty high premium, but currently the low of the day. If FED minutes are bad I will sell. If the contract reaches 2.40 today (I bought mine at 1.90, this would be roughly a 25% gain for the day) I will sell. If neither of these two occur I plan to sell one option prior to closing and keep the other one through earnings.

I still have my five INTC options, and they are now priced around 1.02 per contract. This is pretty far down from where I purchased, but I'm not too worried. These options have been bouncing around and barring any horrendous news I only expect earnings to really move them. Let's see if it gets a run up prior to earnings...I believe they are next tuesday.

GRMN has taken off!!! I'm disappointed I didn't get another 10 shares...I had a limit order in at 94.50 last week but it only grazed upper 95's. Today GRMN is at 110. I'm also selling my EMC shares today so I can have sufficient money for downpayment on house. I'll sell for 21.50 or better, a 10% gain in a little less than a month. Remember I still have my may option, EMCDC, which I purchased for 5.00 a contract, now currently 7.00 a contract (40 % gain).

and last of all...go Alcoa.

listen to yourself

Don't hesitate, listen to yourself... scroll down to Sept. 17. I wanted to buy RIMM because I thought their earnings would be well. At the time RIMM was trading at around 88 dollars a share. I was looking at OCT 07 calls, at a strike price of 85 or 90. On this date calls for RIMM were going for 8.00 and 5.00, respectively. Today the same two calls are going for 27.50 and 23, after RIMM beat earnings again.

Start going on your instincts...listen to yourself. I missed out on a great return.

Roth changes, CRDN a buy

I have a new idea to changes in my Roth that I may implement in paper trades for awhile...and if it's successful implement into the Roth. DITM calls, just one per stock, for some high growth stocks. I'm talking about stocks like GRMN, GOOG, ACH, CEO...any stock within the high growth category. DITM will allow us to pay less of a premium for the stock and capture all the movement...allowing us to control 100 shares of stock at a much lower price. The reason I want to implement it in ROTH is because this is money I have put away that I do not intend to take out or need until I'm 60. I am now 23, so I have 37 years to recoup serious losses and when you are young is the time to be the most aggressive.

My Roth currently consists of USCGX, a large cap growth fund which year to date has performed well, and USSCX, a science and tech fund. I was considering dropping USSCX, giving me 4400 for the strategy. I want to buy two DITM calls for at least may 08 if not jan 09. With the remaining money I want a bank with a high dividend and moderate growth to baseline the portfolio. I think this combination will yield a better return than what I currently expect out of USSCX.

One of these calls may be CRDN. Watch out, CRDN is en fuego again. I owned this long ago at around 55...then sold it at 60. From there I watched it go to 83 then drop back down into the 70's. I grabbed 10 shares at 67 a few weeks back, expecting it to retreat more. CRDN does many things, but the biggest reason for my investment is their growth, particularly in the MRAP (Mine Resistant Ambush Protectant) II vehicles they are producing. These are uparmored vehicles that are used to help soldiers combat terrorism and are the biggest protectant against IED's. Now phase 1 of all MRAP I's is over, and CRDN received 0 contracts for MRAP I and bowed out of the race early to concentrate on MRAP II. Now CRDN has teamed up with Ideal Innovations and OSK, which I also own 40 shares of, in MRAP II...and has sent 2 vehicles to Aberdeen Proving Grounds. I have raised my reentry point for CRDN from 73 to 75...and I easily see CRDN breaking par by the end of the year. I would seriously consider a DITM for CRDN, but have yet to research which companies I want in my Roth revamp.

New portfolio

I'm looking at several stocks and options in a huge change of portfolio. Since I've been gone I have been disconnected and watched all stocks that I had hoped to buy on a pullback accelerate forward.

Optioins I'm now looking into before earnings and coincidentally before options expiry are BBW, INTC, DNA. I currently moved into a position of 5 contracts of INTC this morning for 1.15 a contract. If I can sell it today for 1.65 that is $250 profit for the day. I may keep 2 of these as I expect it to still run up prior to earnings. DNA I think is undervalued as a big pharma, and is partly owned by Roche Holdings, the company my wife works for. BBW is Build-a-bear workshop, and there is a high short float on the stock now. I'm looking to buy the ITM calls for BBW for oct, probably at 17.50 strike price.

As far as other companies I'm looking at long for options, JCP and TMA look like they should be bottoming out. I'm also going to switch from stock to options on AUY, SIRI, RAD, LVLT.

As for stock aquisitions, I just purchased GRMN (20 shares), and will buy more if it continues downward. I'm also looking at increasing my hold in CRDN if it gets to 73, I like KO or PEP at 54 or 70, and want to be in BAC at 50. I like BAC because of high dividend and I think their investment in CFC will be huge.

Yuan He is right on the money with all the Chinese stocks...I made a lot of money off of them but was hesitant on how high they would go and sold it all. He had the guts to stick them out and he made 33 percent last quarter, that is an awesome job. CEO looks good at 155 or so and ACH at around 65.

Also on screwups...my TSL call I had would now be worth about$2400...which I sold mine for $1200.

buying GRMN

Since my wedding I have been fairly disconnected from the stock market. I would get on after the market closed since Hawaii is 6 hours behind EST. Therefore, the market is open between 3:30 am and 10 am here. Anyways, I have no clue what's been going on in the market, and all the stocks I was looking to buy on a pull back have accelerated forward. I'm really in a bad position as I do not know what to put my money on...much research must be done once I get back home.

Yesterday I saw GRMN down on news that Nokia was buying Navteq, a key supplier of maps to GRMN. I think many anticipated GRMN to buyout NVT. I bought 20 shares of GRMN today at an average share price of 104. I think GRMN is a good long term investment as they are the leader of the GPS industry, and I don't think this will effect the outcome of this company. I had looked into options on them and they are fairly overpriced.

As I am closing on my house soon, I'm looking to free up more cash for the downpayment. Therefore, I'm looking to get SIRI options and sell the stock, and selling EMC stock as I have one option.

As for trades, I bought back a covered call and lost 140...and I sold OSK stock and OSK options and made about 180. That's it for now...one thing to look at long is JCP options.