Well, I got what I wanted only I wasn't around for the good stuff. I was contemplating buying several options yesterday for sept, which would have been super cheap and i would have made tons of money. However, I did not. I went out for lunch and then had a meeting and was back at the computer at 2:45pm after all the fun had been had. O well, at least the portfolio went up. For instance, you could have bought GE 40 calls for sept, for 25 dollars and cashed in at days end for 175.
I'm not quite sure where to invest after the rate cut. Everything is up...at prices that we look at and don't think are cheap. I've got a lot of thinking to do...
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
BBY a winner too!!!
BBY suprised all today with a 55 cent EPS in the quarter. I called it and should not have sold yesterday; however, am not dissappointed with getting money yesterday. In the long run the strategy will work out better as stocks go up and down. Now what to do with the two calls I have? I still believe in BBY and think it is going much much higher, so for now I will hold onto them. Anyways, I called it, and I tried to tell everyone to jump aboard. Premarket it is at 46.90 (close of 44.54 yesterday). I anticipate to close higher due to fed rate cut and the rest of the market being able to trade the stock. The main factor for the purchase of options was the 5.5 B buyback, there is a floor to how low the stock can go and will go, so investing in it at the time I had said was a good time.
I will now begin to watch RIMM options. If it drops to the 82-83 range I will probably pull the trigger. Anyways, let's hope we get a 50 point basis cut because I need to lock into my rate soon for my house. Have a good day.
I will now begin to watch RIMM options. If it drops to the 82-83 range I will probably pull the trigger. Anyways, let's hope we get a 50 point basis cut because I need to lock into my rate soon for my house. Have a good day.
Monday, September 17, 2007
Options and Earnings
Well...looks like ADBE was a winner. I called it again, should have bought options in it. Instead, I went with BBY. Abnormally high put to call ratio today made me rethink the options. I sold 3 of the options right before close today, locking in a gain on those of about 18%. I tried to buy 3 puts, that way I would have both directions covered...but I don't have a good feeling about their earnings tomorrow.
My next options purchase will be of RIMM. I'm looking at OCT 07 calls and puts because RIMM reports in two weeks. RIMM definitely is Best of Breed and had a solid quarter last quarter. I'm not sure how much upside is left in RIMM, though. Anyways, I'm looking at 85 and 90 dollar calls, something on the upside.
I also have to dump my OSK calls by OCT, so whenever it gets another big jump I may sell at a loss. However, as of now I'm up $650 on options, so losing the OCT calls isn't a big deal.
My next options purchase will be of RIMM. I'm looking at OCT 07 calls and puts because RIMM reports in two weeks. RIMM definitely is Best of Breed and had a solid quarter last quarter. I'm not sure how much upside is left in RIMM, though. Anyways, I'm looking at 85 and 90 dollar calls, something on the upside.
I also have to dump my OSK calls by OCT, so whenever it gets another big jump I may sell at a loss. However, as of now I'm up $650 on options, so losing the OCT calls isn't a big deal.
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Week looking forward
Next week will be crazy, so my plan is to hedge myself against a big drop if FED dissapoints. Now on Friday I bought an EMC call, EMCDC, an April DITM call @ strike price 15. This will allow me to pull out of EMC stock, which I have 1900 vested in, on Monday. This will give us free cash on hand in case of a big drop. Then we can buy in little by little on the way down.
If everything goes up next week, then I will not buy anything and put my money aside into my high yield 6% account because I close on my house on or around OCT 30.
If we do have a big drop, I am looking at high yield dividend paying blue chips. A few that come to mind are PEP and BAC. I really like BAC, especially if I can get it around 48 price range. I would look to by PEP if it fell to 67. These two I would prefer to own their stock than their options.
Options for next week... my BBY has went up the past two days. Now I have 5 contracts...a lot invested. Now it's up 10%, but I expect it to rise at least 50 cents on monday. Now If I can get 4.50 out of the contract on monday...I will sell two. I anticipate more short covering on monday. I can lock in some profit and then hedge myself against a big fall on tuesday depending on how earnings turn out. AMAT is a longterm play, so I'm not concerned about it. If OSK decided to run up to 60 I would sell my options. I'd rather be in CRDN.
If everything goes up next week, then I will not buy anything and put my money aside into my high yield 6% account because I close on my house on or around OCT 30.
If we do have a big drop, I am looking at high yield dividend paying blue chips. A few that come to mind are PEP and BAC. I really like BAC, especially if I can get it around 48 price range. I would look to by PEP if it fell to 67. These two I would prefer to own their stock than their options.
Options for next week... my BBY has went up the past two days. Now I have 5 contracts...a lot invested. Now it's up 10%, but I expect it to rise at least 50 cents on monday. Now If I can get 4.50 out of the contract on monday...I will sell two. I anticipate more short covering on monday. I can lock in some profit and then hedge myself against a big fall on tuesday depending on how earnings turn out. AMAT is a longterm play, so I'm not concerned about it. If OSK decided to run up to 60 I would sell my options. I'd rather be in CRDN.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
BUY BBY options now!!! Portfolio update
Hello, booyah and skeedaddy. I haven't posted as much lately which is a direct result of being busy. I have a few updates of options trading that I can detail.
I sold my call the day TSL was up 6.00, thinking that it would drop. I sold the call for 12.00, making a 57% gain in nearly 3 weeks. It has dropped and I'm looking to buy it back, possibly between 9 and 10 as I do not think it will drop all the way to the 40's. I believe 43-45 range is reachable.
The day I sold the call I bought 2 puts on a different solar company, YGE. I bought the Sept 17.50, almost for play but we'll see how it works out today. If markets go down today I'll definitely look to sell as I was merely buying it for play purposes. I bought 2 contracts for .40 and look to sell for .70. Remember, I'm not an expert yet, and I don't really feel like risking a lot of money when I'm only testing the waters. However, I'm off to a good start.
Two plays that I would look to jump in on is BBY and ACH. First, BBY. Please buy the BBY MAR 08 Strike price 45 with me. It sells for 3.20 a contract right now. I currently have 2 calls and have an order to buy 3 more today. There are several reasons why you should buy this option. BBY initially disappointed the street on first quarter earnings on or around june 21. The street expected .50 gain, BBY gave them .39. However, since that time BBY has done much that will increase share price up through March. First, BBY is very cheap. It flaunts a 13.8 F P/E ratio and a 1.1 PEG via Scottrade, and also trades at its 52 week low. BBY announced Jun 27 that they are going to repurchase 5.5B. Their market cap is 20B. You do the math, that's 25%. They are going to repurchase 15% by FEB 08, which is perfect for the MAR call. Since their announcement the stock has went down about 8%. The CEO, Robert Willet is also buying shares right now. The last time he purchased shares of BBY was in April 05, on a similar decline. The stock during that time had went from 40 to 32, and then it jumped to 50 (not sure if this was prior to earnings statement or not). Also, the short float is around 17%, so there will be a run up prior to earnings as some shorts will cover. A solid earnings report should cause all other shorts to cover meaning a boost in price (shortsqueeze.com). BBY also reports on the day the FED should cut rates. This stock is easily worth 60 dollars and I can see it reaching that point by MAR. Let's all buy the option and make money together.
ACH, Chalco, or aluminum company of china...This thing bounces around so much you can make money on the volatility of the option. I'm waiting for this to go down to around between 50 and 55 and buy a call option around 60 or 65 forDEC or JAN (not sure which month they have options for). Anyways, it should be a good play.
As for my previous calls...ALTR call options would have been ok if you had sold prior to and after earnings, but JCG would have lost us big money. I would have done very well with SIRI, had I bought options when I wanted to at 2.80. Now it's trading at 3.47 as the proposed merger appears it will go through. I'm going to make no play on SIRI, I will only hold the shares until the merger happens.
Get into the buy...best buy that is. Do it today as shorts will begin covering tomorrow and monday. Also, cramer does next weeks outlook tonight and may mention it which will give us a buy in at a lower price.
I sold my call the day TSL was up 6.00, thinking that it would drop. I sold the call for 12.00, making a 57% gain in nearly 3 weeks. It has dropped and I'm looking to buy it back, possibly between 9 and 10 as I do not think it will drop all the way to the 40's. I believe 43-45 range is reachable.
The day I sold the call I bought 2 puts on a different solar company, YGE. I bought the Sept 17.50, almost for play but we'll see how it works out today. If markets go down today I'll definitely look to sell as I was merely buying it for play purposes. I bought 2 contracts for .40 and look to sell for .70. Remember, I'm not an expert yet, and I don't really feel like risking a lot of money when I'm only testing the waters. However, I'm off to a good start.
Two plays that I would look to jump in on is BBY and ACH. First, BBY. Please buy the BBY MAR 08 Strike price 45 with me. It sells for 3.20 a contract right now. I currently have 2 calls and have an order to buy 3 more today. There are several reasons why you should buy this option. BBY initially disappointed the street on first quarter earnings on or around june 21. The street expected .50 gain, BBY gave them .39. However, since that time BBY has done much that will increase share price up through March. First, BBY is very cheap. It flaunts a 13.8 F P/E ratio and a 1.1 PEG via Scottrade, and also trades at its 52 week low. BBY announced Jun 27 that they are going to repurchase 5.5B. Their market cap is 20B. You do the math, that's 25%. They are going to repurchase 15% by FEB 08, which is perfect for the MAR call. Since their announcement the stock has went down about 8%. The CEO, Robert Willet is also buying shares right now. The last time he purchased shares of BBY was in April 05, on a similar decline. The stock during that time had went from 40 to 32, and then it jumped to 50 (not sure if this was prior to earnings statement or not). Also, the short float is around 17%, so there will be a run up prior to earnings as some shorts will cover. A solid earnings report should cause all other shorts to cover meaning a boost in price (shortsqueeze.com). BBY also reports on the day the FED should cut rates. This stock is easily worth 60 dollars and I can see it reaching that point by MAR. Let's all buy the option and make money together.
ACH, Chalco, or aluminum company of china...This thing bounces around so much you can make money on the volatility of the option. I'm waiting for this to go down to around between 50 and 55 and buy a call option around 60 or 65 forDEC or JAN (not sure which month they have options for). Anyways, it should be a good play.
As for my previous calls...ALTR call options would have been ok if you had sold prior to and after earnings, but JCG would have lost us big money. I would have done very well with SIRI, had I bought options when I wanted to at 2.80. Now it's trading at 3.47 as the proposed merger appears it will go through. I'm going to make no play on SIRI, I will only hold the shares until the merger happens.
Get into the buy...best buy that is. Do it today as shorts will begin covering tomorrow and monday. Also, cramer does next weeks outlook tonight and may mention it which will give us a buy in at a lower price.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
More Options
Ahh, back finally. Had several wedding planning stuff to do plus I've been trying to configure a wireless router. Not sure what I wrote on last, but I have purchased an AMAT option and two BBY options last week. This week I purchased one option for OSK yesterday. I'm looking to sell some of these options though. I was originally in for a quick gain, but somehow have lost sight of what I was doing it for. I'll be the first to admit I should have sold both my OSK call and TSL call when they were up, and I will not make the same mistake again. I should have sold the covered call for SIRI when it was at 3.40. I'm looking into selling covered's for DEC and buying callings at same strike price for MAR, that way I free up some money near xmas time.
Also looking into CFC although I do not want to get burned. This sector is horrible and timing them is even worse. Possibly tihnking about some bear call spreads though. I'd sell 10 contracts at a strike price and buy 10 contracts at a strike price slightly above it. I was reading about them yesterday but when I find out more on it I will repost.
Have a swell day.
Also looking into CFC although I do not want to get burned. This sector is horrible and timing them is even worse. Possibly tihnking about some bear call spreads though. I'd sell 10 contracts at a strike price and buy 10 contracts at a strike price slightly above it. I was reading about them yesterday but when I find out more on it I will repost.
Have a swell day.
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Options recap
A quick, quick post here...looks like ALTR beat earnings but didn't move much. I didn't read the earnings post but I saw they upped buyback. I'll recap more on their earnings report tomorrow.
On JCG, their stock dropped $4 in extended trading. A new idea I thought of is if you expect a stock to make a big move, buy a put and a call at different strike prices. This could allow us to make some money.
As far as my options go, OSK went up up up today. It was nearly a 33% gain in the option today. TSLCI went down a 1.00 but I am still up about 60% on the option. Together, a total of 940 was invested in these two options, and if I sold tomorrow I could rake in $1450. That is a 50% gain in a week. OSK was up even while everything was down. I think they were two lucky calls.
I was reading up on SIRI today, and it is debatable whether the merger will go through this year or not. I am now commited for the long haul. I was thinking of selling calls on SIRI for DEC 07 and using the money to buy calls for MAR 08. The deal will for sure be done by then and I will have less vested after DEC. That should pay off the holiday shopping season bills.
Anyways, that's a quick recap in about 5 mins. Come back tomorrow for a more in depth look.
On JCG, their stock dropped $4 in extended trading. A new idea I thought of is if you expect a stock to make a big move, buy a put and a call at different strike prices. This could allow us to make some money.
As far as my options go, OSK went up up up today. It was nearly a 33% gain in the option today. TSLCI went down a 1.00 but I am still up about 60% on the option. Together, a total of 940 was invested in these two options, and if I sold tomorrow I could rake in $1450. That is a 50% gain in a week. OSK was up even while everything was down. I think they were two lucky calls.
I was reading up on SIRI today, and it is debatable whether the merger will go through this year or not. I am now commited for the long haul. I was thinking of selling calls on SIRI for DEC 07 and using the money to buy calls for MAR 08. The deal will for sure be done by then and I will have less vested after DEC. That should pay off the holiday shopping season bills.
Anyways, that's a quick recap in about 5 mins. Come back tomorrow for a more in depth look.
Earnings and options
This is my first earnings and options forecast...so needless to say I am quite nervous. This upcoming week has no earnings news, but the following week 17-21 does. This also happens to be options expiration week!!! So everything may be skewed but I'm looking at two stocks for this week...ADBE and GS.
ADBE (Adobe Systems) has had very good jumps in past earnings, is a software company, and tech companies do well towards year end. Cramer also recommended this one a few weeks ago, saying it usually heats up around the end of the year. Now I am only going to get into this one if we can get back down to the 40-41 range. So between now and Sept 17, when they report earnings, I will look to purchase an option (strike price 42.50 or 45, september or october) and dump it after earnings.
GS (Goldman Sachs), an investment firm that has gotten beat down due to subprime mess. We have three indicators before they report, which could drive the option up or down...sept 18, to rate cut or not to rate cut, that is the question...we will see. This could create a big move for GS. We also have two other major investment firms reporting first, LEH on tues and MS on wed. These two will give us a sense of sector movement for the investment side. I anticipate bad, but who knows...GS reports thur at 11 am, at which time I would sell the option before the end of the day because friday the options will be sold at share price.
Just something to keep an eye on, happy trading.
ADBE (Adobe Systems) has had very good jumps in past earnings, is a software company, and tech companies do well towards year end. Cramer also recommended this one a few weeks ago, saying it usually heats up around the end of the year. Now I am only going to get into this one if we can get back down to the 40-41 range. So between now and Sept 17, when they report earnings, I will look to purchase an option (strike price 42.50 or 45, september or october) and dump it after earnings.
GS (Goldman Sachs), an investment firm that has gotten beat down due to subprime mess. We have three indicators before they report, which could drive the option up or down...sept 18, to rate cut or not to rate cut, that is the question...we will see. This could create a big move for GS. We also have two other major investment firms reporting first, LEH on tues and MS on wed. These two will give us a sense of sector movement for the investment side. I anticipate bad, but who knows...GS reports thur at 11 am, at which time I would sell the option before the end of the day because friday the options will be sold at share price.
Just something to keep an eye on, happy trading.
Portfolio recap
Sept 4 was a good trading day. I watched my TSL call go up to 12.90, approximately a 75% gain in one week. I made three trades today in my quest to become more liquid before some big economic news... I sold 100 shares of my yamana gold for a small 4% gain in a month...and I sold YGE for an 11% gain in a month. Not great, better than money market though and now I have cash on hand for another trade. I bought a OCT 07 @ 60 call for OSK...I have a feeling they are about to breakout. The stock has been very stagnant since I have bought it, but I'm going on a hunch here. I'm looking to sell the call on any good news.
Now that I have cash on hand, not quite sure what to buy. Everything looks expensive now, although P/E is still less than the high we had in the market at 14000. I'm looking into high dividend, blue chip stocks like BAC. Although today is their ex dividend date, I may wait until record date to buy since I won't get the dividend anyway. I'm also looking at JCP and possibly a healthcare company.
The two stocks I was looking at last week for a quick options score on earnings were ALTR and even though I didn't mention it, JCG (J. Crew Group). Although I'm not sure where the calls were for JCG I'm sure they will beat earnings. I think I was going out on a limb and for a similar price to ALTR I could have got a $55 call for around $20. Now the ALTR calls, SEPT 07 @ 25 that I could have bought for .25 a contract are now going for .40 and JCG is going for 1.60...maybe JCG wasn't that low before. Anyways, both come out with earnings today so let's see if we can be profitable buying options the week before. If this can work I may start buyin 10 contracts, selling 5 the day before the earnings statement and seeing how the earnings come out. Also check back later today for next weeks earnings report on who I think will be earnings next week.
Now that I have cash on hand, not quite sure what to buy. Everything looks expensive now, although P/E is still less than the high we had in the market at 14000. I'm looking into high dividend, blue chip stocks like BAC. Although today is their ex dividend date, I may wait until record date to buy since I won't get the dividend anyway. I'm also looking at JCP and possibly a healthcare company.
The two stocks I was looking at last week for a quick options score on earnings were ALTR and even though I didn't mention it, JCG (J. Crew Group). Although I'm not sure where the calls were for JCG I'm sure they will beat earnings. I think I was going out on a limb and for a similar price to ALTR I could have got a $55 call for around $20. Now the ALTR calls, SEPT 07 @ 25 that I could have bought for .25 a contract are now going for .40 and JCG is going for 1.60...maybe JCG wasn't that low before. Anyways, both come out with earnings today so let's see if we can be profitable buying options the week before. If this can work I may start buyin 10 contracts, selling 5 the day before the earnings statement and seeing how the earnings come out. Also check back later today for next weeks earnings report on who I think will be earnings next week.
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Options report
Alright alright, I know I called this one, but I said last week TSL was too cheap. So I bought a call last monday, of which I've talked about all week. TSL-CI for 7.60 a contract. It closed friday at 11.00 a contract, and this weekend I was told again I should sell it...but I believe TSL is better than FSLR, and is currently at a discount to FSLR now. Today, markets open and TSL is up to near 50. Although I should now sell, I feel I can get 20.00 for this contract. Maybe I am too bullish, but TSL has to reach 65 by MAR 08 for me to get 20.00 a contract out of it. I feel it can be done.
My SVNT calls are now worth more than what I sold them for. Thinking back on it I wish I had sold only one, that way I would still own 100 shares if the stock gains big. Now I'm just looking for time so I can rebuy one of the contracts.
I'm looking long here...but I feel EMC and AMAT have huge upside potential. I'd have to put up 5,000 to own them outright, so I'm looking to buy DITM calls for both, looking at JAN 2010 calls. This would only require about $2000, I'd buy the calls near cost (about a $400 cushion would be paid for time) and would get the most move per dollar invested. This is the BEST way as a VALUE investor to get into long term tech. I'm going to wait for a down day to purchase.
My SVNT calls are now worth more than what I sold them for. Thinking back on it I wish I had sold only one, that way I would still own 100 shares if the stock gains big. Now I'm just looking for time so I can rebuy one of the contracts.
I'm looking long here...but I feel EMC and AMAT have huge upside potential. I'd have to put up 5,000 to own them outright, so I'm looking to buy DITM calls for both, looking at JAN 2010 calls. This would only require about $2000, I'd buy the calls near cost (about a $400 cushion would be paid for time) and would get the most move per dollar invested. This is the BEST way as a VALUE investor to get into long term tech. I'm going to wait for a down day to purchase.
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