Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Hedging my portfolio and how I dropped the ball

So today I figured, you know what, the FED might not cut...or maybe the market has factored in the whole .50 basis point cut. So I decided to buy puts on JPM and COF. I also had bought puts on AMZN in hopes that they would drop the ball. Anyways, when the cut was announced, I decided to sell the puts because I saw us going to 300 like every other rate cut.

then, everything came tumbling down. A hedge is a hedge, you forget about it and sell whats up...the calls. Selling my calls I would have created good cash and would have money for tomorrow. Instead I sold my puts for a loss and now my calls lost the value they had when the market was up 200 points. I can never figure out the market unless I devote myself mentally and physically, 100% to this.

Long term this should be the right move but I'm not sure about the short term due to volatility.

Let's hope AMZN disappoints like all other techs and my puts gain value.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

what to buy today....

I was expecting premarket to be lower...but it looks like rate cuts have a buzz about them. If the market continues in an uptrend until bernake speaks, look to short or open put positions. The market is going ahead expecting stuff again and remember we are still a few hundred points off the bottom. We still have a ways to drop I feel.... Personally, I'm hoping for a rally today and tomorrow and then a drop off. Look to open put positions on largely overvalued companies...such as FSLR, BIDU...etc. The street feels it's not worth paying a P/E when growth is in question.

As for EMC, I got most of it right this time!!!!! Now I wish I would have sold it all, but hey what can you do?? Well, if EMC reports a good number and dazzles investors today...it is a cold cut buy. Period. EMC was way overdone yesterday, down to 14.90 / share. If they have good earnings, and are at this level, I will purchase shares and options of this stock. Be careful to watch VMW, as these are tied regardless of EMC's internal business.

Regardless, opening a position today in a bank stock or retail is my way to go. Rate cuts will get us out and spending, and even a little bit has changed big money's attitude toward these stocks. I will research some 'safe' plays and get back to some posts later today. Good luck.

Monday, January 28, 2008

sold some bsc, emc

BSCGC hit my sell limit. I bought on friday for 1.25 and sold today for 1.70. I also sold 5/7 of my EMC options today before they report. I doubled up and felt taking some of them off the table was the right thing to do. I just feel that in this market, EVERYTHING must go right for a stock to go up. With VMW reporting this evening and EMC tomorrow, VMW would have to beat and up and so would EMC for us to get much more gain out of this. Recently I have been ripped off by not selling when up...not selling AUEFJ when it doubled, not selling EMCBC when it had went up 80%.... I have had several bad calls...although usually doing the opposite of what I actually did turns out being right. Therefore, VMW and EMC will both rise tomorrow along with my option...but at least i have two left, right?

Total realized gains for today were $700. SGP option almost hit this morning but didn't get called away. That would have been a $220 gain. Now I have good cashflow going into tomorrow. If EMC gets hit I'll likely buy some and initiate a covered call. If it goes up I'll sell my remaining two options. Now I have good cash flow and will look to buy on a gap lower tomorrow. Let's hope durable orders are down tomorrow so I can get some good buys...

Today looked like a good day to get into some MCD options....I'll do more research this evening on different option plays...what I own, what I want to own and when I plan to sell. I really need to get more defensive in my options plays and focus on covered calls and mixing in some puts. So long for now...

long time no talk

Yes, I have not been writing on here much because I've been busy losing money. I'm having trouble buying puts at these prices although prices shouldn't be looked at when purchasing a put. I currently am buying calls in groups of 5 or 10. These calls are out of the money calls 5-7 months out. I look to buy and sell within the day or week. I don't want to hold onto my positions for long in this market.

I currently have or own calls on EMC, GLW, SGP, BSC, AAPL, BBY and SIRI.

I'm looking to buy some contracts for some large cap banks, retail, ag or infastructure. I'm focusing on wb, jcg or shld, mon / mos / agu, or sgr / fwlt. These companies have all come down enough where starting a position in them should fare well long term.

I would really like to get out of these positions but feel it's the only way to make up for lost time. hopefully the fed doesn't drop the ball this week and cut lightly, which would resend the markets into panic mode.

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

House of Pain

Man o man, 08 has been the house of pain for me. I have lost my shorts and then some. The past few days have provided some gains, as I try to recoup from my current, still invested losses. I have had to go to margin...you see, I just felt this market was oversold. A short correction was in need and I think we may have got it today. Up 150, but that's not the best part. My intraday trades have paid off on margin, by the amount of nearly 700 in two days. Mind you that the day before was down 220, so the total market movement for the two days was roughly -70 pts. This money sounds great, only it is offsetting nearly five times the amount in losses.

Seriously, this is no joke. This market is absolutely horrible...and the bad part is I want to do this for a living! That may be a joke.... (not really, I do want this job for a living but the fact that I have had trouble making money for myself is the sad part). I currently don't know how much I am down but regardless, I have a strategy to pull me back from the depths of the abyss that I have fell into.

I plan on trading on margin, small, quick trades that will render $100-200. The plan is to invest no more than 1000-1500, and take the quick 10-20% gain. This requires movement with the market...something which to this point I have not done. USAA does not offer trailing sell stops and I am overinvested into options. Once these trades have negated a loss, I simply take it off the table. I then take that money to a safe investment, and will continue to accrue revenue.

I want this so bad...I really do, I want to accumulate wealth so I can buy stuff for my wife for our house and have a sound, long term investment that I can use towards a lifetime of fun. Long-term prosperity is what I seek, and with continued declines in my portfolio I won't achieve it. THIS IS THE TIME FOR PRESERVATION so I need to quit trying to grow my portfolio and seek shelter...FRAG OUT!!!

I still remain extemely bullish on the following....

tech: EMC, CY, GLW
financial...: GS, NLY
mining: FCX
safety: PG, MO, PEP, KO
healthcare/service: CVS
telco: VZ, T

I also think that Cramer has suggested DOW...what a great dividend play. DD just upped guidance, will DOW follow?? It's at a 52 week low, so maybe it's time to get in...

See, I'd like to suggest other companies, but being an EE I'm only really good at seeing tech.

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

EMC strong buy at current level...both long and short

EMC represents a low risk high reward ratio at its current levels. Over the past 4 months, EMC has dipped below 18 twice. With these two drops it quickly rebounded to 19+ a share. If it breaks 17.50 the next level of support is around $16.

I have just purchased 4 near term calls (EMCAC, strike price 15) on the dip this morning. I purchased for $3.10 and am looking to offload at 3.60 before FOMC minutes at 2pm. The market should correct itself as it anticipates the minutes. Thus far it has shown resistance at 18.00 mark.

Let's set off 2008 on the right foot.