Wednesday, September 5, 2007

Earnings and options

This is my first earnings and options forecast...so needless to say I am quite nervous. This upcoming week has no earnings news, but the following week 17-21 does. This also happens to be options expiration week!!! So everything may be skewed but I'm looking at two stocks for this week...ADBE and GS.

ADBE (Adobe Systems) has had very good jumps in past earnings, is a software company, and tech companies do well towards year end. Cramer also recommended this one a few weeks ago, saying it usually heats up around the end of the year. Now I am only going to get into this one if we can get back down to the 40-41 range. So between now and Sept 17, when they report earnings, I will look to purchase an option (strike price 42.50 or 45, september or october) and dump it after earnings.

GS (Goldman Sachs), an investment firm that has gotten beat down due to subprime mess. We have three indicators before they report, which could drive the option up or down...sept 18, to rate cut or not to rate cut, that is the question...we will see. This could create a big move for GS. We also have two other major investment firms reporting first, LEH on tues and MS on wed. These two will give us a sense of sector movement for the investment side. I anticipate bad, but who knows...GS reports thur at 11 am, at which time I would sell the option before the end of the day because friday the options will be sold at share price.

Just something to keep an eye on, happy trading.

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