With recent drop of another stock I'm back to even par. I'm now looking it just selling for loss in several stocks with one goal in mind...I have a few sectors I want my money in.
The first is infrastructure. With the global boom, any play on this will yield great results. For this I'm looking at SGR, FWLT and FLR. These are high quality companies that specialize in infrastructure. The second is high growth. Any company that is growing rapidly will be able to make it through recession. For this I'm thinking along the lines of CRDN, GRMN, and AAPL. I want to buy high dividend paying banks on the way down. 10 shares at a time for every $1 drop in share price. This should be accomplished in the ROTH. Lastly, I want tech. Tech is booming now, best quarter in years and will drive us forward and keep us from recession. Here I like EMC, CY, AMAT. Any short term solar plays are valid.
A mixture of stock and options will be good. I want to stay away from mortgages and stay away from retail. Both are on a downtrend right now. I'll look to revamp this within the next few weeks and will keep you posted on new aquisitions to the portfolio.
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Back again!!
Sorry all who read this, probably very few, but I had to take a break after losing my ass last week. I got way too risky in options buying, oct expiring options and buying options in companies whom I did little research. The only way to win though is to not replicate mistakes, so I'll outline my mistakes.
1. Buying BBW options and not selling until after earnings was a mistake. I had planned to sell before earnings and need to learn if I have to take a loss before earnings, then just do it. It's not the end of the world and if you have a plan you need to stick with it.
2. Buying SNDK without doing any research was a horrible idea. Since INTC reported a strong quarter, and said flash memory was good for them...I assumed SNDK would blow away expectations. What happened in reality was expectations were already built up, so when SNDK reported better than average results it wasn't up to street expectations. Long term I think SNDK will be great. The correct call would have been buy some stock or long term options before earnings and add to it if they disappoint.
3. Buying a FEB cat option before earnings was ultimately a bad decision even though they had one of the best quarters ever. Their forward looking guidance put a dent in the stock price, but I'm not quite sure why.... If their international gains continue, then they should keep making profits and hitting expectations. Anyways, It's a feb expiring option so I have time to make it up.
Now with that said, I did make a pretty penny on INTC options. I did, however, take a 'free ride'. I did an illegal trade, let me explain. I bought options which auto-exercised at expiry. I then owed the bank 10000, but instead of paying it I sold my shares for a gain. I technically was trading with money that wasn't mine; so I had done what was called a free ride. I would have been on probation for 90 days, however, I moved money from my roth over and money from my other account before the trade settled. So now I'm not on trading probation.
1. Buying BBW options and not selling until after earnings was a mistake. I had planned to sell before earnings and need to learn if I have to take a loss before earnings, then just do it. It's not the end of the world and if you have a plan you need to stick with it.
2. Buying SNDK without doing any research was a horrible idea. Since INTC reported a strong quarter, and said flash memory was good for them...I assumed SNDK would blow away expectations. What happened in reality was expectations were already built up, so when SNDK reported better than average results it wasn't up to street expectations. Long term I think SNDK will be great. The correct call would have been buy some stock or long term options before earnings and add to it if they disappoint.
3. Buying a FEB cat option before earnings was ultimately a bad decision even though they had one of the best quarters ever. Their forward looking guidance put a dent in the stock price, but I'm not quite sure why.... If their international gains continue, then they should keep making profits and hitting expectations. Anyways, It's a feb expiring option so I have time to make it up.
Now with that said, I did make a pretty penny on INTC options. I did, however, take a 'free ride'. I did an illegal trade, let me explain. I bought options which auto-exercised at expiry. I then owed the bank 10000, but instead of paying it I sold my shares for a gain. I technically was trading with money that wasn't mine; so I had done what was called a free ride. I would have been on probation for 90 days, however, I moved money from my roth over and money from my other account before the trade settled. So now I'm not on trading probation.
Friday, October 19, 2007
Lost my shorts...
I've officially lost my shorts on options. First time, last time. New rules have been put in place to stop this....
1. Buy mispriced options, and don't buy to time earnings.
2. Buy ITM options, so it's same as owning the stock, so stock replacement.
3. Buy into growth.
4. Don't be an idiot.
1. Buy mispriced options, and don't buy to time earnings.
2. Buy ITM options, so it's same as owning the stock, so stock replacement.
3. Buy into growth.
4. Don't be an idiot.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
gonna get hit like a truck...
Hopefully I'm wrong about this, but just documenting my thoughts...I should have seen this coming. I have a feeling I'm going to get hit by a truck on these BBW options and there is nothing I can do. Looking back on it and seeing tha they are seeking strategic alternatives....seeing that there last quarter they missed expectations...I should have either bought options expiring in a few months or avoided this completely. I got too overconfident in my trading and I think it'sgoing to cost me. Retail sector in general has been quite crummy.
Anyways, my INTC calls should sell today for around 2.00. I missed this sell yesterday and had anticipated either an upgrade or EBAY earnings would drive them higher. I got the latter. This should offset lost money on BBW...SNDK also reports today after market close, so lets hope for a good call there. I still see CAT putting up good numbers, I think their international exposure will lead them to kill expectations.
CRDN has hit the price target and so has JCP. However, I'm not touching JCP until I see something solid. CRDN is another story, I thought I missed this buying opportunity but I don't think I have. I see it dropping to 73, and if i does I'm getting 10 shares. They report earnings on OCT 30.
I'm still looking to offload 50 shares of SVNT, 25 shares of GE and a BBY call. It's time to take some of this money to the bank and buy the house of my dreams with the love of my life. And lets not forget to let the bulls loose.
Anyways, my INTC calls should sell today for around 2.00. I missed this sell yesterday and had anticipated either an upgrade or EBAY earnings would drive them higher. I got the latter. This should offset lost money on BBW...SNDK also reports today after market close, so lets hope for a good call there. I still see CAT putting up good numbers, I think their international exposure will lead them to kill expectations.
CRDN has hit the price target and so has JCP. However, I'm not touching JCP until I see something solid. CRDN is another story, I thought I missed this buying opportunity but I don't think I have. I see it dropping to 73, and if i does I'm getting 10 shares. They report earnings on OCT 30.
I'm still looking to offload 50 shares of SVNT, 25 shares of GE and a BBY call. It's time to take some of this money to the bank and buy the house of my dreams with the love of my life. And lets not forget to let the bulls loose.
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Mid Day update...
I had correct reads on CRDN and JCP. I suggested that I raised my target buy for CRDN to 75, and it hit resistance in the 74's and is back up to 76. I now regret not buying, but had purchased 2 options yesterday and wanted some cash on hand in my account. JCP blew right through 61 to 58 and change today...I think the retail sector is truly undervalued, and believe JCP will bounce back. I'm almost tempted to buy stock rather than options, because the options are so overvalued it's not funny. I could purchase the stock and sell a covered call, but would tie up too much money in doing so.
BBW shorts are not covering...although it is slightly up today. I have until tomorrow to sell the position and it is not looking well at the current moment.
Since the whole market is down today INTC shares are trading sideways in lieu of the fact of earnings report at the end of the day. I'm debating on whether I want to sell any of these as I know a personal friend who has 10 of these oct contracts. Let's cut the crap and let the bulls loose already.
BBW shorts are not covering...although it is slightly up today. I have until tomorrow to sell the position and it is not looking well at the current moment.
Since the whole market is down today INTC shares are trading sideways in lieu of the fact of earnings report at the end of the day. I'm debating on whether I want to sell any of these as I know a personal friend who has 10 of these oct contracts. Let's cut the crap and let the bulls loose already.
Monday, October 15, 2007
new positions
By COB today, I have opened up three new positions. Which I will outline below. I am in a revamping transition on my portfolio where I'm looking to offload stocks / options in order to gain liquidity, changing positions to better myself while also freeing up a chunck of change for this house I am buying.
I opened a position in November calls for SNDK. There has been an abnormally high call volume for SNDK november, leading me to believe somebody knows something. Is it a takeover? Or just solid earnings? We find out on thursday...
The second position I opened was of CAT. I bought a FEB call for CAT...I think they will blow numbers away. I feel that international infastructure is extremely bullish now, and CAT will not disappoint with earnings this friday. Again, time will tell. However, I can't see CAT getting much cheaper than this.
Lastly, I bought a JAN 09 call for RAD. This is in my serious revamp of Scottrade account, where I want to sell OSK, sell RAD, sell LVLT all for options. This swap out should give me 2500 for the house...but not instantaneously. It's a slow process.
Tomorrow will be INTC earnings. I'm also looking at trimming a position in my USAA account and getting into some SNDA (they were up a quick 4% today on no news). By tomorrow I will close at least two of my calls of INTC. I expect earnings to be good, but expert analysts say the make or break number for INTC is gross margins, which sunk to a 5 year low of 47% last quarter. This quarter expects 52%, so anything north of this will be green for traders.
I opened a position in November calls for SNDK. There has been an abnormally high call volume for SNDK november, leading me to believe somebody knows something. Is it a takeover? Or just solid earnings? We find out on thursday...
The second position I opened was of CAT. I bought a FEB call for CAT...I think they will blow numbers away. I feel that international infastructure is extremely bullish now, and CAT will not disappoint with earnings this friday. Again, time will tell. However, I can't see CAT getting much cheaper than this.
Lastly, I bought a JAN 09 call for RAD. This is in my serious revamp of Scottrade account, where I want to sell OSK, sell RAD, sell LVLT all for options. This swap out should give me 2500 for the house...but not instantaneously. It's a slow process.
Tomorrow will be INTC earnings. I'm also looking at trimming a position in my USAA account and getting into some SNDA (they were up a quick 4% today on no news). By tomorrow I will close at least two of my calls of INTC. I expect earnings to be good, but expert analysts say the make or break number for INTC is gross margins, which sunk to a 5 year low of 47% last quarter. This quarter expects 52%, so anything north of this will be green for traders.
Other ways I can free up cash is taking off some GE, some SVNT, and possibly one of my BBY calls. This could give me about 2500 for the house. I'll look to trim these within the next week.
Let the bulls loose.
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Watching these companies for next week.
Tues - DPZ, INTC, TMA
Wed - JPM, UTX, KO
Thur - BBW, CY, GOOG, SNDK, WYE
There have been unusual options on SNDK for November, takeout speculation should be noted. I will probably jump into options of SNDK prior to earnings report.
Also, a Chinese company Shanda (ticker SNDA), who is an interactive entertainment media company in china (video games...MMORPG), is super cheap and I will buy this. I think this company is going to take off as I feel I have been left behind by the rest of the Chinese companies.
Wed - JPM, UTX, KO
Thur - BBW, CY, GOOG, SNDK, WYE
There have been unusual options on SNDK for November, takeout speculation should be noted. I will probably jump into options of SNDK prior to earnings report.
Also, a Chinese company Shanda (ticker SNDA), who is an interactive entertainment media company in china (video games...MMORPG), is super cheap and I will buy this. I think this company is going to take off as I feel I have been left behind by the rest of the Chinese companies.
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