Monday, October 6, 2008

Bear market is now.

On friday, I sold my calls in POT and changed to puts. I had bought the calls in preparation for a bounce with the passage of the bailout in the house. I had gotten the bounce prior to the passage, but hadn't sold. I sold them for a very, very slight gain and immediately bought puts. You see, I just have a hunch that they are going to go down like everything else. To me, The AG sector in particular the fertilizer stocks seem overvalued. The stock prices for these (MON, BG, AGU, MOS and POT, to name a few) rely on high growth to accelerate their stock. With a P/E of around 20.8 now (before it was much, much higher), POT needs at least 20% growth to be trading at current prices. With the market unsure of the economy it begins to become hard to predict growth. Although I believe that this sector in general is in an uptrend the nearterm remains very shaky. These puts, which are JAN 09 45, will be held to protect me against drops in the market, where high growth highly valued stocks should sell off first.

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