Monday, September 22, 2008

weakening dollar = strengthening oil

The 700 billion 'bailout' plan, although it is necessary, is causing our dollar to lose value. This a common sense cause....injecting more money into our system is going to cause current money to be worth less. This in turn causes oil to be worth more...so why did I buy more puts of BP this morning? I'm not quite sure really. I was thinking oil was going to continue the downslide but it BP has crossed its 20 day moving average and is approaching its 50 day moving average at around 57. Any weakness in the next few days and I'm going to scale out of this position for a loss. I also read an interesting article today on CNN Money interviewing Matt Simmons and his prediction of $500 oil. He has conducted rigorous research and determined that the oil reserves in Saudi Arabia have been inaccurately accounted for. He states that we are finding less oil and the demand will increase, and actually predicted $100 oil a few years ago. Anyways, interesting article, definitely check it out. He even mentions offshort wind turbines, which I had never thought about but seem to be a great idea.

Although i have these puts in BP, I do have 2 calls for CHK and 5 calls for FWLT. These should ease my loss as they increase with commodity prices as well. I'm debating on whether to begin adding to my commodities position again....

I did buy one other call today. A LEAPS call for GS. Cramer talked about how MS and GS are already valued at a lower multiple than bank stocks, and with GS essentially becoming a bank should make them worth more than other bank stocks. Anyways, I bought a JAN 10 200 call as I think GS is now vastly undervalued. Instead of buying multiple calls, I will scale in on declines.

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